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captjoe06 wrote:

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I don't believe that net jobs will be lost and I do believe that people that would normally go "up the line" to do their bulk shopping may be less inclined to go to the mall/Market Basket up in Danvers if they can get those goods here.

There is also going to be bus service at Gloucester Crossing with service to downtown along with several kiosks with brochures for the local merchants that sell vastly different products than I see being offered at Gloucester Crossing.

From what I understand Sam Park is also going to be funding "Shop Gloucester" ads on radio and print touting Gloucester as a shopping destination for downtown as well as his project and that those ads are going to start running well before any of the shops in his proposal are built. As far as I can see it he is trying to work in conjunction with downtown not against it.

Well, I'm reassured that you don't believe it. Makes a world of difference. Of course, the City Council doing an Economic Impact Study prior to approving all of this would have given us the information we needed to make a better call. Especially when they had to get a remedial course in what a DIF was AFTER they approved all of the permits, of course.

Hey, I was there for the meetings. Sam is the developer - do you think the management company that comes in to run the place will have different ideas? Do you think the stores and management company are going to let people park there, take up space, then go downtown? How many of you ride CATA?

What type of retail businesses are those 22 small stores aimed at? Shore stores? Jewelers? Kids Clothes? Books? Furniture? Sporting Goods? Specialty goods? Hmmmm, that sounds like Main Street.

Gang of One wrote:

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Economics courses?....I did, I have. Though far too long ago, I'll admit. We'll just disagree over this, then.

Well, Gang, you have been quite expressive in the past, why stop now? Explain to me what your competing economic analysis of this issue is and we'll compare the numbers. Start with a simple supply and demand analysis and tell me what you think will happen. I did a foot traffic survey of Ames when they were here. You know how many came there daily? 5,000 people. They now either go up the line or to Walgreens or CVS to get small items - which led to growth for both of those stores. Now take that foot traffic away...what happens?

Now, take that 5,000 figure - that is WAYYYYYY short of what Sam Park predicts will come to his shopping center - and he project 70-80% of the business will come from the local area. So, hmmmm, where does the difference come from? Some will come from people who don't go up the line, sure, but some will come from downtown. The people downtown are operating on a 5% or less profit margin now. This will kill many of the small retail businesses around Gloucester, as has happened elsewhere in Massachusetts, the region and across the country. There are many examples. But I have your assurance that it won't happen here, so I feel much better.

captjoe06 wrote:

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Hey, I wouldn't have believed so many great restaurants could have made it in Gloucester either, but they have.

I don't know if it's because the rising tide has lifted all boats or if there is another reason that they have all prospered and made Gloucester a great dining destination.

I don't see how letting our students not get a decent enough education because there isn't enough money to have smaller class sizes, or by closing fire stations because we can't pay to man them or how the sewer project gets paid for without new sources of taxes.

Well, Joe, how about talking about what I wrote instead of evading the issue? If the development doesn't produce the revenue, and causes more problems, then we won't be getting any help for the schools or fire stations, or the sewer - will we? There is a saturation point in every market, Joe, and in the off season is when it will tell. Do you think that dividing up the business more in the off season (without visitors going to those restaurants) will lead to a) those new restaurants at Gloucester Crossing eating into the local revenues of all those fine dining establishments or b) more signs saying, "Closed, will re-open May 30" or c) marginal restaurants losing business and closing or d) all of the above? If one restaurant closes and another comes in - what is the tax benefit?

So, let's not demogogue the issues with public safety and public education. We got enough of that from the Bell administration.

captjoe06 wrote:

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Econ wrote:

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captjoe06 wrote:

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Hey, I wouldn't have believed so many great restaurants could have made it in Gloucester either, but they have.




I don't know if it's because the rising tide has lifted all boats or if there is another reason that they have all prospered and made Gloucester a
great dining destination.




I don't see how letting our students not get a decent enough education because there isn't enough money to have smaller class sizes, or by closing
fire stations because we can't pay to man them or how the sewer project gets paid for without new sources of taxes.

Well, Joe, how about talking about what I wrote instead of evading the issue? If the development doesn't produce the revenue, and causes more
problems, then we won't be getting any help for the schools or fire stations, or the sewer - will we? There is a saturation point in every market, Joe,
and in the off season is when it will tell. Do you think that dividing up the business more in the off season (without visitors going to those restaurants)
will lead to a) those new restaurants at Gloucester Crossing eating into the local revenues of all those fine dining establishments or b) more signs saying,
"Close, will re-open May 30" or c) marginal restaurants losing business and closing or d) all of the above? If one restaurant closes and another
comes in - what is the tax benefit?




So, let's not demgogue the issues with public safety and public education. We got enough of that from the Bell administration.

I don't think I evaded it at all. I thought I addressed it directly. I doubt that the property taxes on Main Street will go down by $650,000-$800,000 dollars that Gloucester Crossing will be paying(not to mention the couple hundred thousand dollar ambulance and $180,000 in school grounds improvements), hell I would be surprised if all of Main street pays $650,000-$800,000 in real estate taxes combined.

It seems to me that you are the one that glosses over the tax benefits.

And BTW, as sick of you are of hearing about the issues with public safety and public education, I'm just as sick of people glossing those issues over as if they don't matter.

Ah, but to quote Ronald Reagan, "there you go again!". The development will not - as I have demonstrated - generate $800K in revenue. It starts at a base of - maybe, if you're generous - $200K and goes down from there. Then you have to subtract the DIF and third and fourth order economic effects. So I didn't "gloss over" anything - I told you they don't exist at the level YOU have been saying for months on this board - erroneously, I might add. If you want to be a flack for Sam and Michelle, that is fine, but get the facts straight. You can't just go back and keep saying "$800K, $800K!" and put your hands over your ears like a kid. That money isn't coming.

I am concerned about public safety and public education - but! - why is it that any time there is any discussion of any budget items the first thing out of the politicians mouth is "all right, but we'll have to cut schools and police and fire...." - Not administrators, clerks, DPW, etc.? Because they - and the unions working with them - like to use this as a scare tactic to prevent the citizens from reacting and dealing with the real problems (health and other benefits that keep escalating in union contracts regardless of outside economic realities). But I digress.

I know who you are Joe, I've heard you putting this stuff out around town ever since Sam applied for his permits. If "flack" is the worst thing you get called around this site, I would be surprised - and I'm surprised, thereby, that you would be sensitive to it given the level of discourse I have seen so far on this chat. Heck its my first day and I've already been called a moron, a tool, and several other epithets by people who didn't even respond to the substance of my posts.

As to the hotel tax, it was $200K of the revenue shown by Greg C. in his presentation. After Greg C. was done Destino asked him where he got the numbers - what he used as a basis. He said he didn't have one, he just multiplied the 100 rooms in the hotel times the tax rate at a given occupancy rate. Destino then asked Greg if he knew what the tax revenues were for ALL the hotels together in the City of Gloucester...Greg said no. Destino informed Greg that the revenue from ALL the hotel rooms in Gloucester did not add up to $200K. So 100 rooms producing $200K, or anything close, was unlikely. This was just one of the problems with Greg C.'s report.

I'd be happy to continue a civil discourse, Joe - but please, let's not get froggy. Next you'll be asking me to meet you somewhere to settle things mano au mano, and that wouldn't be good.

Thong Extractor wrote:

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Hey Milton fucking Friedman how bout' this for economics.Since Passports, Jalepenos and The Franklin have opened no less than 10 restaraunts have opened in various parts of the city. In that time Passports has expanded and is fulll all the time, Franklin has expanded upstairs and is always busy and Jalepenos wants to expand is often busting at the seams. No crappy strip mall chinese joint will affect those. You don't have a fucking clue and just because you have some numbers about Ames doesn't mean you know jack-shit about economy. Newburyport has a couple strip malls and their downtown is thriving. We don't have any malls and we have half of Main St empty.

Perhaps you aren't aware, as you apparently spend most of your time practicing your swearing, that Newburyport's downtown isn't doing fine and they are trying to revive it with a Main Streets program. You see, it took millions of dollars in Federal grants to spur the growth of those strip malls - much like the DIF/TIF Sam wants - and it has hurt their downtown area greatly. How do I know? I was recently invited to a conference in Newburport on this very subject and also attended a briefing by John Tierney on the history of how that happened. If you doubt it, look it up on the web.

Now, may I ask you Mr. Krugman, where you get your expertise? Let's see - 3 restaurants + 10 more restaurants....could we add another 20 and have not affect on the economy? Or is the number 10? Or is the actual factor pricing - where the large, bottom end of the market would go to a family priced restaurant or two at the Gloucester Crossing? If they are large restaurants, like a 99 or similar, that could take quite a bite out of the market for those restaurants. And I don't know if you are familiar with the restaurant business, but margins aren't all that big on food. It is nearly impossible to get the SBA to lend money on a restaurant due to the failure rate. Bar revenues are what makes many of those restaurants profitable, so volume is important.

So, perhaps you might close your foul mouth and try doing a little research before you pop off. You forget - I work for developers to make these things happen. I didn't oppose Gloucester Crossing, but it should be developed differently so the City got more out of Sam for their money and avoided the potential for killing the downtown businesses.